A cosmic Indian summer

photo credit: Nasa

Is the average temperature on earth higher today than it was a century ago when industrialisation expanded throughout the globe to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population? It is actually not as easy as you might expect to find the answer to that obvious question amongst the plethora of years of press releases from the climate alarmists. From all the micro data that the climate alarmists are extracting, analysing and dispensing, why is it so hard to find a simple list of actual seasonal temperature recordings over the last one-hundred-year period in any given location? Instead, we get charts of variations of temperature from the norm (although rationalising what ‘the norm’ is and when the norm supposedly happened seems to be just ignored). They provide charts of ‘moving averages over years’ with the years selected to ‘prove’ a trend entirely at the writer’s discretion. And while the internet is absolutely overwhelmed with alarmist headlines, actual temperature data over 100 years, separated by season is very, very hard to find. But I eventually did find one. It was from Britain. Have a look at these actual temperature recordings below, over the last hundred years in the country that birthed and led the coal-powered industrial revolution and tell me where you see any temperature trends that would alarm you.

So as a brief scan, in Central England in 1912, the year the Titanic sank and the coal miners went on strike, the average winter temperature was 5.36, spring 8.53, summer 17.55 and autumn 10.39.

At the start of the ‘Boomer’ generation in 1948, winter was 5.13, spring 8.75, summer 17.5 and autumn 11.15.

In swinging 1965, the year Gen. X was born, winter was 3.28, spring 8.43, summer 15.71 and autumn 10.40

In 1981 the year the ‘Millennials’ arrived on earth, winter was 4.33, spring 9.17, summer 15.0nand autumn 10.12

And at the dawn of the 21st century winter was 5.35, spring 9.49, summer 16.45 and autumn 11.57.

Data summary

100 years of Central England temperatures by season
YearWINSPRSUMAUT
Source: Met Office
19114.638.3414.979.37
19125.368.5317.5510.39
19135.589.7114.728.6
19144.588.9214.9711.49
19154.499.115.8610.38
19165.768.1415.138.86
19171.638.2614.7110.42
19183.757.3515.8310.09
19194.188.6715.169.5
19205.558.215.078.11
19215.469.5114.3410.37
19225.099.2916.6311.09
19235.478.0814.218.74
19243.788.3215.598.86
19255.688.0314.7410.55
19264.817.9915.999.07
19274.128.715.7210.24
19284.389.2414.929.86
19291.628.5515.5110.68
19305.148.0315.3311.25
19313.888.3315.8410.61
19324.667.8715.059.58
19333.957.3816.089.88
19342.539.5317.1710.48
19356.18.3916.3610.6
19363.728.2416.5810.37
19375.58.4815.579.84
19384.518.5516.19.95
19394.758.8915.6111.31
19401.488.615.4810.79
19412.79.1815.9510.13
19421.967.0915.9310.56
19435.738.5615.6810.16
19444.259.9915.8710.23
19453.58.7316.099.58
19464.6210.2115.8411.24
19471.038.4814.8710.8
19485.138.7517.511.15
19495.569.7715.1510.61
19505.338.7216.7312.02
19513.169.0816.289.9
19524.097.4215.3310.95
19533.29.8816.28.31
19544.258.7615.5210.92
19553.88.3314.3611
19563.077.416.5810.12
19575.658.3114.5310.05
19584.429.5616.2310.27
19593.717.5715.3711.03
19604.759.7816.8311.73
196159.3215.3710.57
19623.899.815.6511.04
1963-0.538.2814.589.77
19643.068.6414.9210.95
19653.288.4315.7110.4
19664.638.5814.639.56
     
19675.088.6815.3210.25
19683.418.2415.8410.36
19693.427.915.3511.26
19703.617.7816.0411.15
19714.318.116.0311.35
19724.98.7215.5310.65
19734.848.2914.469.73
19745.648.4216.1810.17
19756.617.7115.019.06
19764.638.4316.910.04
19773.718.3718.0310.44
19784.168.2114.6810.63
19792.167.6814.811.5
19804.768.2915.210.62
19814.339.1715.0610.12
19823.18.7915.3910.33
19834.527.9916.4211.22
19844.667.5917.5910.83
19852.78.1716.411.32
19863.297.314.9510.06
19873.418.2515.3410.4
19885.419.1115.3310.56
19896.449.581510.28
19906.819.9117.0311.5
19913.338.916.4911.03
19924.4910.0315.7510.73
19934.959.4716.279.98
19945.139.0715.518.9
19956.259.0916.7811.41
19963.347.5117.7211.72
19973.769.7616.0810.47
19986.0410.0617.0511.4
19995.7310.1215.7210.75
20005.359.4916.4511.57
20015.04916.0811.11
20025.599.9116.6311.63
20035.059.8916.211.59
20045.449.517.8410.98
20055.199.3716.8311.51
20064.168.9616.6611.94
20076.7710.7217.8113.2
20085.959.7415.9410.96
20093.6710.0616.1410.46
20102.848.8216.5712.08
20113.6110.6916.6810.28

I could look at the average summer temperature of 1912 at 17.55 degrees and compare it with 100 years later at 16.68 and tell you that the summers are cooling in central England.  I could even take three summers spread over this period of 2000, 1948 and 1912, draw a connecting line and claim that the climate has since cooled by 1 degree over the century. I would not do that of course, two or three points over a 100 year span does not make a valid data base. Yet the alarmists fill the media and internet with no more than micro data snippets to make their claims. So just look over the above 100 year chart as a total group or a random handful and just ask yourself, do these temperatures alarm me? 

According to the best astrophysics information we have, our temperatures are, unsurprisingly, linked with the natural orbit of the earth around the sun, which is a changing environment and by no means a perfect circle as we might have assumed. Militutan Milankovic, a contemporary of other mathematics and physics geniuses Einstein, Minkowski and Tesla, demonstrated the way our solar system works. 

In brief, Milankovic identified that there are three cycles contained in the way earth orbits the sun: elliptic, tilt and precession. The elliptical plane changes shape quite dramatically every 100,000 years. It moves from an orbit of being more round to becoming more elliptical. In its more elliptical phase earth spends a longer time further away from the sun.  Unsurprisingly the cycles of glaciation of the planet also have a 100,000-year cycle, or at least have done so over the past 600,000 years that Milankovic was able to include in his calculations.

Milankovic’s calculations connecting solar radiation levels with glaciation, even in temperate climate zones, remain valid today having been constantly reviewed with all the computing support to which modern astrophysicists have access. According to NASA’s earth observatory, Earth’s orbit changes its eccentricity over the course of 100,000 years from nearly 0 to 0.07 and back again.

When the Earth’s orbit has a higher eccentricity, the planet’s surface receives 20 to 30 percent more solar radiation when it’s closest to the sun than when it is furthest. During a glacial period, the planet cools as the earth spends less time closer to the sun and more time further away from it; so the air dries out and water levels fall as liquid is transformed to ice. Land bridges start to become available, and islands appear where before they were part of the seabed. If the cycle repeats the pattern of the the past 600,000 years, then we are now at the peak of the warming cycle and will, over the next few thousand years begin the cooling slide back to glaciation when in 90,000 years’ time, ice sheets will again cover North Europe and North America,

The second change is in the tilt of earth. This moves between 22.1 degrees and 24.5 degrees over a period of 41,000 years and this tilt effects the severity of the seasons. Earth is currently in the middle of this range.

The third cycle is the precession of Earth caused by a slight wobble similar to that of a spinning top. Currently Earth’s axis has been pointed north towards Polaris, also known as the North Star. But Earth’s gradual processional wobble means that in approximately 2,000 years the north star will be a dimmer star called Errai. As the Earth progresses through its a precession cycle, the orientation of the planet is altered. This wobble also effects the level of solar radiation striking different hemispheres of earth as it proceeds around the 360 degrees.

In the chart comparing C02 levels and temperature we can see there is a connection between the two, but what we cannot see is whether it is changing temperature that causes changing C02 levels or the other way around. Nor can we see such a precise correlation as the alarmists are claiming over the past 100 years. What is also obvious is that high levels of C02 have been reached regularly in the past, long before the industrial age of humans. What is undeniable though is that the warming and cooling of the planet is cyclical which tends to confirm it is a result of the cyclical relationship between the earth and sun as Milankovic demonstrated. The other obvious point is that such movements occur over thousands of years not over dozens of years.

The reason for the heightened anxiety of the alarmists is that today our scientists are micromanaging data and constantly tweeting bite size doomsday headlines that simply are not supported by the bigger picture trends. The climate works in tens of thousands of years, not in months. The last time humans went through this climate cycle they were blissfully unaware of the fact that there even was a cycle; it was a pleasant and warm time and they probably just enjoyed it; a few hundred generations later the climate was comparatively much colder, but they did not know it was colder because they had no records to analyse; it just was what it was. Too much micro analysis of climate data on a month-by-month basis is just creating hyper anxiety and panic.

The problem with such micro analysis is that, even as they march on their Friday strikes and fly around the globe in their thousands to attend conferences in order to draft resolutions, they are just plucking temperature levels and deadlines out of the air about when we may reach the point of no return, which target seems to be a shifting landscape. In 2008 the tipping point was predicted to be 1 August 2016; in 2016, following the Paris Agreement which set 2 degrees as the tipping point, IIASA (science institute) policy brief said we had until to Dec 31, 2020, to keep warming under 2 degrees. As that date approached the 2018 climate summit in September they said we could still get under the 2-degree tipping point within 12 years so that takes us out to 2030. Prince Charles is a little more optimistic and thinks we have until 2050 and he has a feel for these things. But with the doomsday event being a moving feast the alarmist movement decided to up the ante. Now the tipping point was reduced to 1.5 degrees and target dates had to be agreed.

Fossil fuel over-use is not a problem of climate, it is a problem of health. Instead of talking about the ‘Mad Max’ scenario, all because of the industrial sins of our grandfathers, we need to be talking about investing in better technology to reduce lung-damaging air pollution in our larger industrial cities. But the ‘green energy’ options being demanded at these summits only result in air pollution being replaced by the toxic pollution of our farming soils and our water table that poison our food and water sources. When we get rid of the climate doomsday message and focus on health solutions then we might start making some progress. We might even look back to the future at pyramid power. Right now, the climate alarmists are only creating a climate of doom and hopelessness. And that carries the risk of being a self-fulfilling prophesy.

They also cause significant alarm that the global warming is causing catastrophic sea rise which also is unsupported by science. Changing weather and wind patterns will change how and where the oceans encroach on the land, but satellite imagery is showing as many Pacific Islands growing in size as opposed to shrinking. The major ocean rise occurred in the few thousand years immediately ending the last ice age, and for many thousand years the oceans have been stable.

Incidentally, in 2017 climate alarmists claimed that the Great barrier Reef off the east coast of Australia was on its deathbed because of our carbon emissions. But, with no reduction in atmospheric carbon, the reef has since returned to full health and is now happily running half marathons on the weekends. It must have been just a bit of a bug.

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